🔔 Today’s Gold Pulse – What’s Moving the Market (Nov 12, 2025)

SA Trading Connect — Real Insights. Real Hustle.

Snapshot (Wed, Nov 12, 2025 — ~12:00 SAST):
Spot gold is hovering around $4,105–$4,115/oz after touching a near 3-week high yesterday; price is easing as the USD edges up and traders lock in gains ahead of U.S. CPI on Thursday (Nov 13). Reuters+1

🧠 What’s up today

• Pullback after a strong run: Gold is off ~0.5% intraday as the dollar firms and some investors take profits following Monday–Tuesday’s surge. Reuters

• Rate-cut hopes still supportive: The rally earlier this week was fueled by bets the Fed could cut in December on softer U.S. data; odds remain elevated even as price consolidates. Reuters+1

• Big data ahead: U.S. CPI (Oct) prints Thu, Nov 13 at 08:30 ET (15:30 SAST). That’s today’s main overhang—positioning into CPI can whipsaw price. Bureau of Labor Statistics+1

🔍 Key drivers (today)

1. USD / yields tone: A modest dollar bounce is capping upside for now. If DXY pushes higher, expect further gold cooling; if it fades, dips can get bid. Reuters

2. Pre-CPI positioning: After two strong sessions, fast money tends to flatten into CPI risk—expect tighter ranges and fake-outs near intraday levels. Reuters

3. Momentum vs. resistance: Recent analyses flag $4,125–$4,140 as pivotal resistance (repeated failure there = short-term pullback risk). Forex+1

📍 Intraday levels (XAUUSD)

• Resistance:

  • $4,125 (yesterday’s pivotal area / prior reversal close), $4,140 (double-top risk), then $4,180–$4,200 if momentum extends. Forex+1

• Support:

  • $4,100–$4,105 (pivot band); $4,075 (first deeper pullback); $4,000 (psych + structure—lose this on a daily close and correction risk opens). Reuters+1

🎯 Simple intraday plan (educational only)

Bias: Neutral → mildly bullish while above $4,100; respect CPI risk.

• Plan A — Buy the dip into $4,100–$4,105:
  Wait for a rejection wick and reclaim above the band; targets $4,125 → $4,140; invalidate on clean 15-min acceptance < $4,100, or hard break toward $4,075. Forex+1

• Plan B — Break & hold above $4,140:
  Look for a pullback to $4,135–$4,140 that holds; targets $4,180 → $4,200; invalidate beneath $4,125. FX Leaders

• Plan C — If $4,100 fails:
  Stand aside or look lower toward $4,075, and only re-engage on evidence of buyers stepping back in; daily close < $4,000 flips bias to corrective. FX Leaders

Discipline: Smaller size into CPI; avoid new trades ±10–15 min around the print.

🧭 Bottom line

Gold is consolidating above $4,100 after a strong two-day squeeze; CPI on Thursday is the decider. Hold the $4,100 floor and we can stab at $4,125–$4,140 again; lose it and $4,075 comes into play. Real Insights. Real Hustle. Reuters+1